Lucky Cigarette Case

It helps if you are both lucky AND good.

This card is probably an auto-include in Rex Murphy. Run it with higher ed and you get extra clues and card draw at a low, low price.

Outside of Rex, most rogues will probably consider this card but I think the class as a whole is still waiting for a solid succeed by two archetype to be fully fleshed out. It might already be there (this card helps a lot), but it hasn't been fully fleshed out yet.

Although, it might also just be worth it in rogues with a high evade or fight stat. So long as it gets you three cards (likely to happen) it will be a net positive for tempo.

I like it.

6/12/18

Myriad · 1219

It comboes extremely well with Lockpicks. I've drawn it turn one with Lockpicks twice and it was bonkers. — Katsue · 10 6/17/18

Actually, the action spent to play this could be used for something else, to gain a net benefit you need 4 draws. I'dd play this in a a Finn or Wendy deck where you plan to get Pickpocket (2). This is the perfect placeholder for that card. — Tsuruki23 · 2522 6/18/18

Play it with Lockpicks turn 1, and if you're unlucky, you will only draw 5 or 6 cards from this card. — Katsue · 10 6/19/18

One of the few 0 XP rogue accessory cards. Can be searched with backpack. — Django · 5070 6/19/18

There is also Jenny, for whom cards are worth more than resources. You probably still need 4 draws for profit, but you might consider yourself just about breaking even on 3 draws. — duke_loves_biscuits · 1256 6/21/18

How good is this card in a regular build that doesn't include something like Lockpicks?

Let's do some math:

On Standard in The Innsmouth Conspiracy, there are 20 tokens in the bag to start. Let's assume that only +1, 0, and will trigger this (since you're trying to be at +2 for all checks). By my calculation, you have a:

36% chance if you make two tests per turn
48% chance if you make three tests per turn
59% chance if you make four tests per turn

I think assuming two tests is fair since you'll be using actions to Play and Move. You might also get tests during the Mythos Phase but you probably won't be at +2 for those checks. If we assume that the scenario is 15 turns long, you'll net 5.4 cards if you play it on turn 1 but only about 2.7 if you play it mid-game. That's not great. Preposterous Sketches will get you three cards immediately for the same cost and not take up your Accessory slot. Obviously, this card starts to look better if you can take more actions per turn (thanks to something like Leo De Luca) or if you routinely test at above +2.

1/1/23

GeneralXy · 38

It is important to note how fast the tides turn: if your testing even 3 up, your chances come out to 45% if you test twice a turn, 73% if you test 3 times a turn, and 83% if you test 4 times. Likewise, if you test at +4 even once a turn (ex: you are running Streetwise, Well connected, have Picks, or are Winnie), you jump to 65% on that one test assuming your able to turn half of the symbols positive. Finally, Insmouth is an unusually bad campaign for LCC due to its unusually dense collection of symbols, and in almost every other campaign released your looking at something more akin to a 70% chance (!!!) to get a card by testing twice at a mere +2, which would come out to +5 cards mid game and +10 if you were to drop it early. — dezzmont · 210 1/1/23

Err, not 70%, 45%. Still, the math swings more dramatically on going even +3 in those campaigns, or if you take 3 tests as well (on turns you spam 3 actions at +2, your getting a card 58% of the time). It really comes down to 'counting cards' to make LCC work out for you. — dezzmont · 210 1/1/23

It's interesting that you might trigger the Cigarette Case *more* often on Hard. The Pit of Despair's chaos bag asks you to go 3 up on tests in order to have a similar pass-chance as going 2 up on Standard — this is fairly typical. But your chance to trigger Cigarette Case testing thusly is significantly greater: 49% at 2 tests a turn; 64% at 3 tests a turn; and 74% at 4 tests a turn. (Or, to be precise, the probabilities are 24/49, 218/343, and 1776/2401 respectively). — Spritz · 68 1/3/23

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